Emily’s Crime Watch – Tip #27 (Prediction)

Posted: January 22, 2011 in "The Gift of Fear", Award Winning Author and Criminologist Jennifer Chase, Crime Prevention, Emily Stone's Crime Watch Tips, Prediction


An important factor in crime prevention is prediction. What does it really mean to you? How can you predict if you’re going to be a crime victim or not? How do you stay calm and objective? Can you actually take the fear out of the situation in order to see it more objectively?

According to Gavin De Becker author of The Gift of Fear, there are eleven predictions that are outlined in his book. These are interesting and thought-provoking concepts that everyone should take the time to consider in relating to crime and prediction, or even other personal situations.

1. Measurability of Outcome

What are your fears of the actual outcome in a certain situation? Do you see something terrible happening or do you think it’s a slight chance of happening? Predictions are less likely to happen if it’s easily measurable.

2. Vantage

It is a position that you can easily see the potential outcome. You can see the potential pre-incident indicators and context.

3. Imminence

From your view, are you predicting something that can happen immediately? According the author, some of our best predictive resources are applied when outcomes might occur as they are still meaningful to us.

4. Context

The situation is clear to the person making the predictions.

5. Pre-Incident Indicators

Learning to see the pre-incident indicators is the most important when dealing with prediction. Being in the position to see subtle or direct signs of potential dangers are significant in prediction.

6. Experience

Life experiences help with many things, including danger and prediction. Learn to use this wonderful skill.

7. Comparable Events

Can you consider or compare comparable events? This is also extremely important and co-mingles with experience.

8. Objectivity

This concept refers to staying objective enough to consider both sides of a prediction. In making a simple decision, there are several things to consider in any given situation. It’s important to be aware and objective during this time of prediction.

9. Investment

How invested are you in the predictive outcome? How much do you care about avoiding or exploiting the predictive outcome? Keep in mind that if you want the prediction to be correct or not.

10. Replicability

Is this a practical test that has been tested elsewhere? This applies to scientific experiments and not necessarily to human behavior. Still, it’s something to consider.

11. Knowledge

Do you have accurate knowledge of the prediction and situation? According to the author, if it’s not relevant and accurate then it can masquerade as wisdom instead.

When it comes to any potential crime situation, be aware, be objective, have a plan, and don’t let fear control your actions.

Check out this wonderful book:

The Gift of Fear
AND Other Survival Signals That Protect Us From Violence
By Gavin De Becker

Jennifer Chase
Award Winning Author & Criminologist

Blog: http://authorjenniferchase.blogspot.com/
Website:
http://jenniferchase.vpweb.com/
Crime Watch:
http://emilystonecrimewatch.blogspot.com/
Book & Crime Talk: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jennifer-chase

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